Weekly Market Analysis: Know How News Impacted your Currency

March 1

Government Budget (2020) (Italy)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF The fall in Italian budget may cause some minor impacts starting from the time mentioned in EURXXX and XXXEUR pairs. Government Budget is an itemized accounting of the payments received by government (taxes and other fees) and the payments made by government (purchases and transfer payments). A budget deficit occurs when an government spends more money than it takes in. The opposite of a budget deficit is a budget surplus.

Inflation Rate YoY Prel (FEB) (Germany)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF The EURXXX and XXXEUR pairs would behave out of characteristics. Prediction or analysis may be proven wrong as two high-impact news is in sequence with each other. In Germany, the most important categories in the consumer price index are Housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels (32 percent of the total weight), Transport (13 percent), Recreation, entertainment & culture (11 percent) and Food & non-alcoholic beverages (10 percent). The index also includes Miscellaneous goods & services (7 percent), Furniture, lighting equipment, appliances & other household equipment (5 percent), Restaurant & accommodation services (5 percent), Health (5 percent) and Clothing & footwear (5 percent). The remaining 7 percent of the index is composed by Alcoholic beverages & tobacco, Communication and Education.

ISM Manufacturing PMI (FEB) (US)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY After the publishing of February's stats, the USDXXX and XXXUSD pairs can go bullish or nearish depending on the outcome. The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), the report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction, and the diffusion index. A PMI™ reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining.

March 2

RBA Interest Rate Decision (Australia)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
AUDCAD, AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDNZD, AUDJPY, AUDCHF AUDXXX and XXXAUD may behave bullish most of the time but can go bearish too. In Australia, interest rates decisions are taken by the Reserve Bank of Australia's Board. The official interest rate is the cash rate. The cash rate is the rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries, is determined in the money market as a result of the interaction of demand for and supply of overnight funds.

Unemployment Change (FEB) (Germany)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF EURXXX and XXXEUR pairs could go up as the statistic shows drastic change in "Unemployment Change". Be careful while trading. In German, unemployment change measures the absolut change in the number of unemployed people in the reporting month.

GDP Growth Rate Annualized (Q4) (Canada)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
All CADXXX and XXXCAD Pairs From the show statistic, the analytic team has determined that CAD can go down pretty soon and that might be a huge fall but for now it will remain bullish. GDP Annualized Growth Rate shows the gdp growth that would be registered if the quarter-on-quarter rate of change were maintained for a full year. On the expenditure side, household consumption is the main component of GDP and accounts for 58 percent of its total use, followed by gross fixed capital formation (22 percent) and government expenditure (19 percent). Exports of goods and services account for 32 percent of GDP while imports account for 33 percent, subtracting 1 percent of total GDP. Non-profit institutions serving households' final consumption expenditure and investment in inventories account for the remaining 2 percent.

March 3

GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q4) (Australia)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
AUDCAD, AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDNZD, AUDJPY, AUDCHF AUDXXX and XXXAUD pairs might follow a bearish trendline prior to the time mentioned above. Australia's economy is dominated by the service sector (65 percent of total GDP). Yet its economic success in recent years has been based on the mining (13.5 percent of GDP) and agriculture (2 percent of GDP) as the country is a major exporter of commodities. Other sectors include: manufacturing (11 percent) and construction (9.5 percent). .

GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q4) (Italy)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF The probability of EURXXX currencies following a bearish trendline is very likely. Traders are requested to keep a careful eye on the movement of the chart. Italy is the second largest manufacturing economy in Europe and the third largest economy in the Euro Area. Composition of the GDP on the expenditure side: household consumption (61 percent), government expenditure (19 percent) and gross fixed capital formation (17 percent). Exports of goods and services account for 30 percent of GDP while imports for 27 percent, adding 3 percent to total GDP.

Fed Brainard Speech (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY There is a lot of speeches happening from the time mentioned. USD market may get volatile. Although the possibility of major changes is close to none. Traders are requested to trade carefully anyway. In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.

March 4

Foreign Bond Investment (Japan)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, NZDJPY As the investment in foreign bonds declined, there might not be a huge impact on the overall currency but XXXJPY currencies can be choppy depending on the time. The net data shows the difference between acquisition and disposition of long-term debt securities: a plus sign indicates net purchases of foreign securities by Japanese investors; a minus sign indicates net selling and inflows of funds into Japan. It excludes Bank of Japan.

Construction PMI (FEB) (England)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
All XXXGBP and GBPXXX pairs Statistics declined than the last month depicted in the charts. So, from the time mentioned the mentioned pairs can get choppy on the chart. Be careful while trading. In the United Kingdom, the Market / Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply Purchasing Managers Index measures the performance of the construction sector and is derived from a survey of 170 construction companies.

Fed Kaplan Speech (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY The USD can get volatile depending on the outcome of the speech. And there is a lot of speeches that will be happening after Keplan's Speech. So, the currency will be ever-changing. Be careful while trading. In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.

March 5

Balance of Trade (JAN) (Canada)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDCAD, EURCAD, CADJPY, NZDCAD, CADCHF, AUDCAD, GBPCAD We are assuming that this month's balance of Canada is also going to be on the negative side. CADXXX pairs can be observed mostly in bearish movements. Between 1970 and 2008 Canada had been recording trade surpluses every year. From 2009 the trade balance shifted to deficit, with an exception of 2011 and 2014. In 2018, the largest trade deficits were recorded with China, Germany and Mexico, while the biggest trade surpluses were recorded with the US, the UK and Norway.

Unemployment Rate (FEB) (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY As the unemployment stats in the US getting smaller we are safe to say that the USD is going to get stronger. Slight movements of the US following bearish can be seen. In the United States, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force.

Foreign Exchange Reserves (FEB) (Japan)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, NZDJPY Japanese inventory of Foreign Assets is increasing and after observing this month's stats of FER we can surely say that JPYXXX pairs might follow bullish trendline. In Japan, Foreign Exchange Reserves are the foreign assets held or controlled by the country's central bank. The reserves are made of gold or a specific currency. They can also be special drawing rights and marketable securities denominated in foreign currencies like treasury bills, government bonds, corporate bonds and equities and foreign currency loans.

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