Weekly Market Analysis (Mar’ 08- Mar’12): Know How News Impacted Your Currency

March 8

Bank Lending YoY (FEB) (Japan)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, NZDJPY The observation of the statistic indicates JPY pairs to hike up or the other way around. In Japan, bank lending refers to the year-on-year change of all outstanding loans and discounts with banks and shinkin banks. Lending increases with increased business confidence and investment and it is an important indicator for the Japanese economy because of the weakness that has plagued the Japanese banking sector.

BoE Gov Bailey Speech (England)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPCHF, EURGBP, Depending on the outcome GBP pairs can move accordingly or totally on the opposite side. In the United Kingdom, benchmark interest rate is set by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The Bank of England official interest rate is the repo rate. This repo rate applies to open market operations of the Bank of England with a group of counterparties (banks, building societies, securities firms).

Wholesale Inventories MoM (JAN) (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY Depending on the outcome USDXXX can go bullish or bearish. Keep a close eye on the chart movement pattern. The Wholesale Inventories are the stock of unsold goods held by wholesalers. Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product changes. A high inventory points to economic slowdown in the US, while a low reading points to a stronger growth.

March 9

GDP Growth Annualized Final (Q4) (Japan)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, NZDJPY Japanese GDP is ever rising but the previous stats shows that the GDP is kind of falling. Minor fall in JPYXXX pairs can be expected. GDP Annualized Growth Rate shows the gdp growth that would be registered if the quarter-on-quarter rate of change were maintained for a full year.

GDP Growth Rate QoQ 3rd Est (Q4) (Europian Area)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF The statistics of GDP Q3 has shown a huge change in European GDP, we expect not much of a change this time with EURXXX pairs. But, unforeseen happens. Keep a careful eye on the charts. The Euro Area is an economic and monetary union of 19 European countries that adopted the euro as their currency. It is the second largest economy in the world and if it was a country it would be the third most populous with 341 million inhabitants. Germany, France, Italy and Spain are the most important economies accounting respectively for 29 percent, 20 percent, 15 percent and 10 percent of the bloc’s GDP.

Balance of Trade (JAN) (Germany)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF The German trade balance has been very unstable for some months now. Depending on the outcome EURXXX pairs can go bullish or bearish. Germany runs regular trade surpluses since 1952, primarily due to strong exports of vehicles and other machinery. In 2017, the largest trade surpluses were recorded with the US, the UK, France, Austria, Spain, Sweden and the UAE; while the biggest trade deficits were recorded with China, Vietnam, Norway, Russia, the Netherlands, Ireland and Czech Republic.

March 10

Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAR) (Australia)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
AUDCAD, AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDNZD, AUDJPY, AUDCHF Depending on the outcome of the news AUDXXX pairs can move bullish or bearish. The Consumer Sentiment Index is based on a survey of over 1,200 Australian households. The Index is an average of five component indexes which reflect consumers' evaluations of their household financial situation over the past year and the coming year, anticipated economic conditions over the coming year and the next five years, and buying conditions for major household items. The index scores above 100 indicate that optimists outweigh pessimists.

Core Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY CIR has declined after the Corona situation and recently it's been rising again and it's good for the currency. USDXXX might follow a bullish trendline. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;

Interest Rate Statement (BOC) (Canada)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDCAD, EURCAD, CADJPY, NZDCAD, CADCHF, AUDCAD, GBPCAD It's the primary tool the BOC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. And the interest rate has been the same for quite some time now and we don't expect it to move either. In Canada, benchmark interest rate is set by the Bank of Canada's (BoC) Governing Council. The official interest rate is the Overnight Rate. Since 1996 the Bank Rate is set at the upper limit of an operating band for the money market overnight rate. Previously, from March 1980 until February 1996 the Bank Rate was set at 25 basis points above the weekly average tender rate for 3-month Treasury bills.

March 11

ECB Interest Rate Decision (Euro Zone)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF The statistic of the news will be published in the mentioned time. The EURXXX can get volatile. In the Euro Area, benchmark interest rate is set by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. The primary objective of the ECB’s monetary policy is to maintain price stability which is to keep inflation below, but close to 2 percent over the medium term. In times of prolonged low inflation and low interest rates, ECB may also adopt non-standard monetary policy measures, such as asset purchase programmes. The official interest rate is the Main refinancing operations rate. .

Business NZ PMI (FEB) (New Zealand)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
ALL NZDXXX & XXXNZD PAIRS. Around the mentioned time. NZDXXX pairs can be manipulated. Be careful while trading. The Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for production, new orders, delivered, inventories and employment. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change.

Consumer Inflation Expectations (MAR) (Australia)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
AUDCAD, AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDNZD, AUDJPY, AUDCHF No sign of huge movement in AUDXXX pairs. Price may be volatile. In Australia, Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations survey measures consumers’ median expectations for price growth over the coming 12 months.

March 12

GDP 3-Month Avg (JAN) (England)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF EURXXX pairs have a high chance to follow a bullish trendline starting from this time. Be ready and trade with the flow. In Germany, the most important categories in the consumer price index are Housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels (32 percent of the total weight), Transport (13 percent), Recreation, entertainment & culture (11 percent) and Food & non-alcoholic beverages (10 percent). The index also includes Miscellaneous goods & services (7 percent), Furniture, lighting equipment, appliances & other household equipment (5 percent), Restaurant & accommodation services (5 percent), Health (5 percent) and Clothing & footwear (5 percent). The remaining 7 percent of the index is composed by Alcoholic beverages & tobacco, Communication and Education.

Inflation Rate YoY Final (FEB) (Germany)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF EURXXX pairs have a high chance to follow a bullish trendline starting from this time. Be ready and trade with the flow. In Germany, the most important categories in the consumer price index are Housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels (32 percent of the total weight), Transport (13 percent), Recreation, entertainment & culture (11 percent) and Food & non-alcoholic beverages (10 percent). The index also includes Miscellaneous goods & services (7 percent), Furniture, lighting equipment, appliances & other household equipment (5 percent), Restaurant & accommodation services (5 percent), Health (5 percent) and Clothing & footwear (5 percent). The remaining 7 percent of the index is composed by Alcoholic beverages & tobacco, Communication and Education.

Employment Change (FEB) (Canada)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDCAD, EURCAD, CADJPY, NZDCAD, CADCHF, AUDCAD, GBPCAD CADXXX pairs have a decent chance of gaining some price. Although it's not clear yet. Wait till the time mentioned and observe the chart. In Canada, employment change refers to the change in the number of persons who work for pay or profit, or perform unpaid family work. Estimates include both full-time and part-time employment.

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