Weekly Market Analysis (Mar 22- Mar 26): Know How News Impacted Your Currency

March 22

Fed Chair Powell Speaks(USA)

Pair Projection
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. USDXXX pairs are expected to be bullish.

Coincident Index Final (JAN) (Japan)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, NZDJPY We are anticipating slightly bullish movements from JPYXXX pairs. Coincident Index correlates with the business cycle, and is used to identify the current state of the economy. In general, increasing coincident index shows that the economy is in an expansion phase, and decreasing coincident index reflects that the economy is in a contraction phase. The index is calculated using month-over-month percentage changes in 11 leading indicators, 11 coincident indicators, and 6 lagging indicators.

SNB Annual Report (Switzerland)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
All CHFXXX AND XXXCHF PAIRS We are expecting sudden big moves from the mentioned time with the CHFXXX pairs. Traders are requested to trade with caution In Switzerland, interest rate decisions are taken by the Swiss National Bank. The official interest rate is the SNB policy rate. The SNB seeks to keep the secured short-term Swiss franc money market rates close to the SNB policy rate. SARON is the most representative of these rates today. As of 13 June 2019, the SNB policy rate replaced the target range for the three-month Swiss franc Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate) previously used in the SNB's monetary policy strategy. The reason for this adjustment was that the Libor was becoming less relevant as the most important reference rate owing to the absence of the underlying money market transactions. From 6 September 2011 to 15 January 2015, the main focus of implementation was on the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro, which the SNB enforced during this period. On 18 December 2014, the SNB decided to impose an interest rate of -0.25% on sight deposit account balances. With the announcement of a negative interest rate, the Libor target range used then was taken into negative territory for the first time, and extended to its usual width of 1 percentage point. On 15 January 2015, the SNB lowered the interest rate on sight deposits to -0.75% and moved the target range downwards to between -1.25% and -0.25%. Negative interest has applied since 22 January 2015 and currently corresponds to the SNB policy rate.

March 23

Employment Change (DEC) (UK)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPCHF, EURGBP, Slight decline in GBPXXX pairs are anticipated from the mentioned time. In the United Kingdom, employment change refers to the 3-month moving average compared to the previous period in the number of people in employment aged 16 and over.

Fed Chair Powell Testifies (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. USDXXX pairs are expected to be bullish. As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person.

Balance of Trade (FEB) (New Zealand)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
ALL NZDXXX & XXXNZD PAIRS. This index is very unpredictable. Depending on the result the price of NZDXXX pairs can go bullish or bearish. New Zealand is greatly dependent on international trade. New Zealand's economy has traditionally been based on a foundation of exports from its very efficient agricultural system: dairy products, meat, forest products, fruit and beverages. New Zealand imports mainly vehicles, machinery and equipment, petroleum, electronics, plastics and aircraft. Its main trading partners are: China, Australia, the US, Japan and South Korea.

March 24

Core Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) (UK)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPCHF, EURGBP, The stats are expected to remain the same, if there is not a huge difference in expected stats then GBPXXX pairs are most probably going to follow the current trendline. In the United Kingdom, the core inflation rate tracks changes in prices that consumers pay for a basket of goods which excludes some volatile price items.

Durable Goods Orders MoM (FEB) (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY Minor fall is expected with USDXXX currencies in shorter time frames. Durable Goods Orders refer to new orders placed with manufacturers for delivery of hard goods which meant to last at least three years.

Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (MAR) (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY If the USDXXX currencies starts declining from the previous news time, this is where it might turnaround or decline more. In the United States, the Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and is derived from a survey of 600 industrial companies. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is based on five individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders (30 percent), Output (25 percent), Employment (20 percent), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15 percent) and Stock of Items Purchased (10 percent), with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change.

March 25

GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q4) (US)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY We are expecting USDXXX pairs can get unpredictable from the mentioned time. Traders are requested to trade with caution. On the expenditure side, personal consumption expenditures accounts for 68 percent of total GDP out of which purchases of goods constitute 23 percent and services 45 percent. Private investment accounts for 16 percent of GDP and government consumption and investment for 18 percent. As the value of goods exported (13.5 percent) is lower than the value of goods imported (16.5 percent), net exports subtracts 3 percent from the total GDP value.

GfK Consumer Confidence (APR) (Germany)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF EURXXX currencies are expected to remain as they are or to follow the current trendline. Still, we request to you all to trade with caution. The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator is based on a survey of 2000 individuals age 14 and above. The questionnaire focuses on income expectations, buying propensity and savings. The components of the indicator are calculated as the difference between positive and negative answers to the questions asked. Their value can vary between minus 100 and plus 100 points with 0 representing the long term average.

European Council Meeting (Euro Zone)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF Deepening on the outcome of the meeting EURXXX pairs can go bullish or bearish. In the Euro Area, benchmark interest rate is set by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. The primary objective of the ECB’s monetary policy is to maintain price stability which is to keep inflation below, but close to 2 percent over the medium term. In times of prolonged low inflation and low interest rates, ECB may also adopt non-standard monetary policy measures, such as asset purchase programmes. The official interest rate is the Main refinancing operations rate. .

March 26

Ifo Business Climate (MAR) (Germany)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF Most of the EURXXX currencies are on a bullish trendline these days. And, we there might not be break of structure today. Look for entry/ In Germany, the IFO Business Climate Index measures entrepreneurs’ sentiment about current business situation and their expectations for the next 6 months. The survey is made by phone and covers 9,000 firms in manufacturing, the service sector, trade and construction. The Business Climate Balance is constructed as the difference between the percentage share of executives that are optimistic and the share that are pessimistic. This balance can take values between -100 (all responding firms assess their situation as poor and expect business to deteriorate) and +100 (all responding firms assessed their situation as good and expect an improvement in their business). For the calculation of the IFO Business Climate Index, the Balance is normalized to the average of a base year (currently 2015).

Core PCE Price Index YoY (FEB) (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY Previoously there has been 1.5% growth in this index and the forecasted rate of growth is gonna remain the same apparently. Unless too much change in the actual growth USDXXX pairs might follow the current trendline. In the United States, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index provides a measure of the prices paid by people for domestic purchases of goods and services, excluding the prices of food and energy. The core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. The central bank has a 2 percent target.

BoE Tenreyro Speech (UK)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPCHF, EURGBP, Depending on the outcome of the event USDXXX may go bullish or bearish. In the United Kingdom, benchmark interest rate is set by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The Bank of England official interest rate is the repo rate. This repo rate applies to open market operations of the Bank of England with a group of counterparties (banks, building societies, securities firms).

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