Weekly Market Analysis (Mar 15- Mar 19): Know How News Impacted Your Currency

March 15

Tertiary Industry Index MoM (JAN) (Japan)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, NZDJPY There has been a minor decline in Japan's TII. Our analysis says that this will barely impact XXXJPY. But, retail traders should be careful of institutional moves. The activity index of the tertiary industry helps to understand an overall picture of industrial activities, inclusive of all business categories in the tertiary industry. The composite index is a general indicator in which the indexes to express the activity in respective business categories are consolidated with weight in terms of the scale of relative importance of each business category (value added). Wholesale Trade is the most important sector and accounts for 15 percent of tertiary activity, followed by Medical, Health Care & Welfare and Living & Amusement-related Services (12 percent each), Information & Communications (11 percent), Retail Trade and Transport & Postal Activities (10 percent each), Finance and Insurance (9 percent), Real Estate (8 percent), Business-related Services (7 percent), and Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply & Water and Goods Rental and Leasing (3 percent each).

CPIF YoY (FEB) (Switzerland)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
All CHFXXX AND XXXCHF PAIRS There has been a huge uprise in the Consumer Price Index in January. Our analytics team predicts that t will reach a newer high this Monday and CHFXXX currencies can go on a bullish trend. As of September 2017, the Riksbank uses the CPIF, the consumer price index with a fixed interest rate, as target variable for the inflation target. According to the central bank, "From a monetary policy perspective, one disadvantage of the CPI is that it is directly affected by changes in the policy rate. These adjustments have, through their impact on mortgage rates, large and direct effects on the CPI which are not connected to underlying inflationary pressures".

Overall Net Capital Flows (JAN)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF,GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY The index of NCF is very unpredictable and the USDXXX currencies may get volatile around the mentioned time Net Treasury International Capital Flows includes all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows.

March 17

Core Inflation Rate YoY Final (FEB) (Euro Zone)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF The price may get volatile depending on the published stats, but there is a good possibility of EURXXX pair's price to hike. In Euro Area, the core inflation rate is calculated using the weighted average of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Price (HICP) aggregates, excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco that face volatile price movements.

Core Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) (Canada)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDCAD, EURCAD, CADJPY, NZDCAD, CADCHF, AUDCAD, GBPCAD The previous month's chart shows possible price hike but there is still no clear outcome yer. Traders are requested to trade CADXXX pairs carefully. In Canada, the core inflation rate tracks changes in prices that consumers pay for a basket of goods which excludes some volatile price items.

FOMC Economic Projections (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDCAD, EURCAD, CADJPY, NZDCAD, CADCHF, AUDCAD, GBPCAD Lots of events happening from GMT 18:00 in USA, USDXXX pair's prices are very likely to get volatile. In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.

March 18

Employment Change (FEB) (Australia)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
AUDCAD, AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDNZD, AUDJPY, AUDCHF Volatility can be seen in AUDXXX pairs. Traders are requested to analyse the market before trading. In Australia, employment change refers to the absolute change in the number of persons who work for pay or profit, or perform unpaid family work. Estimates include both full-time and part-time employment.

BoE Interest Rate Decision (England)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPCHF, EURGBP, GBPXXX price may remain as usual assuming there won't be any major change in the Interest Rate of UK this month. Still, retail traders should be cautious. In the United Kingdom, benchmark interest rate is set by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The Bank of England official interest rate is the repo rate. This repo rate applies to open market operations of the Bank of England with a group of counterparties (banks, building societies, securities firms).

Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) (Japan)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, NZDJPY The slight downfall in JPYXXX currencies can be seen, or it can also go the other way around, In Japan, the most important categories in the consumer price index are Food (25 percent of total weight) and Housing (21 percent). Transportation and communications accounts for 14 percent; Culture and recreation for 11.5 percent; Fuel, light and water charges for 7 percent; Medical care for 4.3 percent; Clothes and footwear for 4 percent. Furniture and household utensils, Education and Miscellaneous goods and services account for the remaining.

March 19

BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Japan)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, NZDJPY There have been no huge changes in Interest in Japan. We are hoping JPYXXX pairs would remain as usual. It's best to be careful around the mentioned time. In Japan, interest rates are set by the Bank of Japan's Policy Board in its Monetary Policy Meetings. The BoJ's official interest rate is the discount rate. Monetary Policy Meetings produce a guideline for money market operations in inter-meeting periods and this guideline is written in terms of a target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate.

Retail Sales MoM Prel (FEB) (Australia)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
AUDCAD, AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDNZD, AUDJPY, AUDCHF We can see a lot of ups and downs in RSM Index in the last few months. It's not clear how this will turnout. Depending on the outcome AUDXXX pairs can go bullish or beariish. In Australia, the Retail sales report provides an aggregated measure of sales of retail goods and services over a specific time period. In Australia, Retail sales are seasonal, volatile and relatively important to the overall economy.

Gfk Consumer Confidence (MAR) (UK)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPCHF, EURGBP, This index is the hypothesis of the masses of UK. So, the prices of GBPXXX are going to drop according to the majority of UK's citizens. In the United Kingdom, the consumer confidence survey measures the level of optimism that consumers have about the performance of the economy in the next 12 months. The GfK Consumer Confidence is derived from the survey of about 2,000 consumers which are asked to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions including personal financial situation, climate for major purchases, overall economic situation and savings level.

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