Weekly Market Analysis (June 07 – June 10): Know How News Impacted Your Currency

June 7

Unemployment Rate (Switzerland)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
All CHFXXX and XXXCHF pairs CHFXXX pairs are anticipated to be volatile from the mentioned time. Depending on the actual outcome a new trend creation can be seen. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.

Coincident Index Prel (APR) (Japan)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, NZDJPY Volatility in JPYXXX pairs has been indicated but we can assume a bullish bias and trade accordingly. Wait for the actual outcome. Coincident Index correlates with the business cycle, and is used to identify the current state of the economy. In general, increasing coincident index shows that the economy is in an expansion phase, and decreasing coincident index reflects that the economy is in a contraction phase. The index is calculated using month-over-month percentage changes in 11 leading indicators, 11 coincident indicators, and 6 lagging indicators.

Consumer Credit Change (APR) (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY Depending on the actual outcome USDXXX and XXXUSD can move either way. Traders are to be careful and trade cautiously. In the United States, Consumer Credit refers to outstanding credit flows extended to individuals for household, family, and other personal expenditures, excluding loans secured by real estate.

June 8

GDP Growth Annualized Final (Q1) (Japan)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, NZDJPY Lots of volume can enter or exit the market and create a volatile situation. JPYXXX pairs might follow a bearish trend depending on the actual outcome. GDP Annualized Growth Rate shows the gdp growth that would be registered if the quarter-on-quarter rate of change were maintained for a full year.

GDP Growth Rate QoQ 3rd Est (Q1) (Euro Zone)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF The forecast of this index is in the negative compared to last quarter's. So there is a possibility a downwards trend might get created with EURXXX but that will totally depend on the actual outcome. The Euro Area is an economic and monetary union of 19 European countries that adopted the euro as their currency. It is the second largest economy in the world and if it was a country it would be the third most populous with 341 million inhabitants. Germany, France, Italy and Spain are the most important economies accounting respectively for 29 percent, 20 percent, 15 percent and 10 percent of the bloc’s GDP.

Balance of Trade (APR) (Canada)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDCAD, EURCAD, CADJPY, NZDCAD, CADCHF, AUDCAD, GBPCAD Depending on the actual outcome, prices of CADXXX pairs might move in any direction. Between 1970 and 2008 Canada had been recording trade surpluses every year. From 2009 the trade balance shifted to deficit, with an exception of 2011 and 2014. In 2018, the largest trade deficits were recorded with China, Germany and Mexico, while the biggest trade surpluses were recorded with the US, the UK and Norway.

June 9

RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks (Australia)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
AUDCAD, AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDNZD, AUDJPY, AUDCHF Movement of AUDXXX pairs would mostly depend on the outcome of this news. Keep an eye on chart around the mentioned time. He's responsible for advising Reserve Bank Board members - who decide where to set the nation's key interest rates - on matters relating to economics, and his public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future policy shifts;

Prelim ANZ Business Confidence (New Zealand)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
All NZDXXX & XXXNZD PAIRS. Previous decrease in the index might continue, we are expecting a bearish trend creation in NZDXXX pairs. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;

BOC Rate Statement (Canada)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDCAD, EURCAD, CADJPY, NZDCAD, CADCHF, AUDCAD, GBPCAD The movement of CADXXX pairs will mostly depend on the rate statement; be careful around the mentioned time as prices may get volatile. It's the primary tool the BOC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions;

June 10

Monetary Policy Statement (Euro Zone)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF The ECB usually changes the statement slightly at each release. It's these changes that traders focus on. Depending on the outcome prices of EURXXX can go either way. It's the primary tool the ECB uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions;

Core CPI m/m (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of CPI, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC usually pays more attention to the Core data - so do traders; USDXXX should be very volatile. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;

30-y Bond Auction (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY USDXXX pairs should be volatile all day through as several high impact news will impact the price but during the NY session a break of structure can happen. Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors' outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence;

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