Weekly Market Analysis (Apr 26 – Apr 30): Know How News Impacted Your Currency

April 26

Ifo Business Climate (APR) (Germany)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF Volatility in EURXXX pairs are highly expected. Look for opportunities to enter. In Germany, the IFO Business Climate Index measures entrepreneurs’ sentiment about current business situation and their expectations for the next 6 months. The survey is made by phone and covers 9,000 firms in manufacturing, the service sector, trade and construction. The Business Climate Balance is constructed as the difference between the percentage share of executives that are optimistic and the share that are pessimistic. This balance can take values between -100 (all responding firms assess their situation as poor and expect business to deteriorate) and +100 (all responding firms assessed their situation as good and expect an improvement in their business). For the calculation of the IFO Business Climate Index, the Balance is normalized to the average of a base year (currently 2015).

Coincident Index Final (FEB) (Japan)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, NZDJPY Depending on the outcome of this news, volatility in JPY pairs is highly expected. Traders are to be cautious and look for opportunities. Coincident Index correlates with the business cycle, and is used to identify the current state of the economy. In general, increasing coincident index shows that the economy is in an expansion phase, and decreasing coincident index reflects that the economy is in a contraction phase. The index is calculated using month-over-month percentage changes in 11 leading indicators, 11 coincident indicators, and 6 lagging indicators.

Durable Goods Orders MoM (MAR) (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY The forecast says that the USD might get bearish. But, wait for the market confirmation and look for most rewarding setups. Durable Goods Orders refer to new orders placed with manufacturers for delivery of hard goods which meant to last at least three years.

April 27

BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Japan)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, NZDJPY The prices of JPYXXX can go up or down depending on the decision by BOJ. Market may be volatile, look for opportunities. In Japan, interest rates are set by the Bank of Japan's Policy Board in its Monetary Policy Meetings. The BoJ's official interest rate is the discount rate. Monetary Policy Meetings produce a guideline for money market operations in inter-meeting periods and this guideline is written in terms of a target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate.

Consumer Confidence (APR) (Italy)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF EURXXX has the potential to be bullish. Market may be volatile arouns this time. Look for opportunities. In Italy, the Confidence Climate Index covers 2,000 Italian consumers. The survey is done by phone and assesses households’ economic conditions, employment and saving prospects and expected purchases of durable goods. The consumer confidence index is adjusted for seasonal effects and fixed to a base year of 2005. The value 100 indicates no evolution in consumer sentiment, a value over 100 shows increasing confidence and a value under 100 indicates low expectations.

CB Consumer Confidence (APR) (USA)

Pair Projection
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY Volatility in USD pairs are highly expected. Look for opportunities as market

April 28

CPI q/q (Australia)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
AUDCAD, AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDNZD, AUDJPY, AUDCHF Although this data is extremely late relative to inflation data from other countries, it's the primary gauge of consumer prices and tends to create hefty market impacts; Volatility in AUDXXX is expected Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;

FOMC Statement (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY The FOMC usually changes the statement slightly at each release. It's these changes that traders focus on; USDXXX migth get volatile. It's the primary tool the FOMC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes;

Core Retail Sales m/m (Canada)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDCAD, EURCAD, CADJPY, NZDCAD, CADCHF, AUDCAD, GBPCAD Released monthly, about 50 days after the month ends; Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles; CAD pairs are anticipated to be bullish. Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends;

April 29

Advance GDP q/q (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF,GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY ECB usually changes the statement slightly at each release. It's these changes that traders focus on. Volatility is expected from EURXXX pairs. Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy; Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency; Frequency Released quarterly, about 30 days after the quarter ends;

Unemployment Change (APR) (Germany)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF EUR might get weak against other currencies. Look for opportunities cause the prices can get volatile. In German, unemployment change measures the absolut change in the number of unemployed people in the reporting month.

Consumer Confidence Final (APR) (Euro Zone)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF This news also indicates EUR getting weaker against other currencies. In Euro Area, the Consumer Economic Sentiment Indicator measures the level of optimism that consumers have about the economy. The survey is made by phone and covers 23 000 households in the Euro Area. The number of households sample varies across the zone. The questions focus on current economic and financial situation, savings intention as well as on expected developments regarding: consumer price indexes, general economic situation and major purchases of durable goods. The Consumer ESI measures consumer confidence on a scale of -100 to 100, where -100 indicate extreme lack of confidence, 0 neutrality and 100 extreme confidence.

April 30

SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks (Switzerland)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
All CHFXXX AND XXXCHF PAIRS SNB Chairman Apr 2012 - Jun 2021. Volatility is sometimes experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues; CHF might get volatile since the mentioned time. Due to speak at the Swiss National Bank's General Meeting of Shareholders, via satellite; As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;

German Prelim GDP q/q (Germany)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF There are 2 versions of GDP released about 10 days apart - Preliminary and Final. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact; EUR pairs are anticipated to be bearish. Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy; It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health;Derived Via Survey of about 750 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;

GDP m/m (Canada)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDCAD, EURCAD, CADJPY, NZDCAD, CADCHF, AUDCAD, GBPCAD Released monthly, about 60 days after the month ends;, CAD is expected to get weaker around this time around. Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health; Derived Via Survey of about 800 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;

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