Weekly Market Analysis (Apr 19- Apr 23): Know How News Impacted Your Currency

April 19

Balance of Trade (MAR) (Japan)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, NZDJPY Great volatility expected from JPYXXX currencies starting from this time around. Look for opportunities. Between 1980 and 2010 Japan had been recording trade surpluses every year due to rising exports. However, the trade balance swung to deficit in 2011, as the Fukushima nuclear disaster forced the country to increase its purchases of fossil fuels and gas in the wake of weaker yen. The surplus was back in 2016 and 2017, but in 2018 and 2019 Japan's trade balance shifted back into deficit amid persistent trade tensions between the US and China, and sluggish global growth. In 2019, Japan reported the biggest trade surpluses with the US, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and the Netherlands. The biggest trade deficits were recorded with China, Australia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar.

Services NZ PSI (MAR) (Newzealand)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
All NZDXXX & XXXNZD PAIRS. Depending on the outcome the prices of NZDXXX can move either way. Look for opportunities to enter the market. The Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for sales, new orders, delivered, inventories and employment. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the Services sector compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change.

Housing Starts (MAR) (Canada)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDCAD, EURCAD, CADJPY, NZDCAD, CADCHF, AUDCAD, GBPCAD This news might not impact the CADXXX currencies that much, but the possibility still remains. In Canada, a housing start is defined as the beginning of construction work on the building where the dwelling unit will be located. This can be described in 2 ways: usually, the stage when the concrete has been poured for the whole of the footing around the structure; or an equivalent stage where a basement will not be part of the structure.

April 20

CPI q/q (New Zealand)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
All NZDXXX & XXXNZD PAIRS. This is extremely late relative to inflation data from other countries, but it's the primary gauge of consumer prices and tends to create hefty market impacts; Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;

Average Earnings Index 3m/y (UK)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPCHF, EURGBP, Change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses of UK. GBPXXX pairs are expected to be bearish. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer;

Tertiary Industry Activity m/m (Japan)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, NZDJPY Change in the total value of services purchased by businesses; JPYXX pairs are also expected to go bearish. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses are quickly affected by market conditions, and changes in their spending can be an early signal of future economic activity such as hiring, earnings, and investment;

April 21

CPI y/y (UK)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPCHF, EURGBP, This is considered the UK's most important inflation data because it's used as the central bank's inflation target; GBPXXX pairs are expected to be bullish. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;

Retail Sales m/m (Australia)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
AUDCAD, AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDNZD, AUDJPY, AUDCHF Change in the total value of sales at the retail level; AUD pairs are expected to be bullish. It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity;

BOC Monetary Policy Report (Canada)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDCAD, EURCAD, CADJPY, NZDCAD, CADCHF, AUDCAD, GBPCAD The BOC Governor usually holds a press conference to discuss the contents of this report about 75 minutes after release; HIGH volatility in CAD pairs is expected. It provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation - the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions;

April 22

Monetary Policy Statement (Euro Zone)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF ECB usually changes the statement slightly at each release. It's these changes that traders focus on. Volatility is expected from EURXXX pairs. It's the primary tool the ECB uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions;

ECB Press Conference (Euro Zone)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF The press conference is about an hour long and has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions.. Heavy volatility expected from EURXXX pairs. t's the primary method the ECB uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy;

Unemployment Claims (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY This is the nation's earliest economic data. USDXXX pairs are expected to be bearish. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;

April 23

German Flash Services PMI (Euro Zone)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Flash and Final. EUR is expected to be bullish. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;Survey of about 800 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;

French Flash Services PMI(Euro Zone)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF EUR is anticipated to be volatile all day long tomorrow. Look for opportunities. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via Survey of about 750 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;

Flash Manufacturing PMI (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry; USD is also expected to be volatile. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via Survey of about 800 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;

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