Weekly Market Analysis (Apr 12-Apr 16): Know How News Impacted Your Currency

April 12

Bank Lending YoY (MAR) (Japan)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, NZDJPY Depending on the outcome of the news JPYXXX pairs might move accordingly. In Japan, bank lending refers to the year-on-year change of all outstanding loans and discounts with banks and shinkin banks. Lending increases with increased business confidence and investment and it is an important indicator for the Japanese economy because of the weakness that has plagued the Japanese banking sector.

Retail Sales YoY (FEB) (Euro Zone)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF The overall EURXXX pairs might go down on a bearish trendline id the forecasted outcome turns out correct. But, if there is inconsistency between the forecast and actual outcome in that case the pairs can gegt volatile. In the Euro Area, retail sales show the evolution of the total amount of goods sold. Among them, food drinks and tobacco account for the highest share (39.3 percent); followed by electrical goods and furniture (12.0 percent share); computer equipment books and other (11.4 percent share); pharmaceutical and medical goods (9.9 percent share); textiles, clothing, footwear (9.2 percent share); auto fuel (9.1 percent share); other non-food products (6.0 percent share) and mail orders and internet (2.9 percent share). Among countries, Germany has the highest weight (25.9 percent), followed by France (21.7 percent), Italy (16.1 percent) and Spain (11.4 percent). Others are Netherlands (5.2 percent); Belgium (4.3 percent); Greece (3.0 percent); Austria (2.8 percent); Portugal (2.4 percent); Finland (1.8 percent); Ireland (1.7 percent); Luxembourg and Slovakia (0.8 percent each); Slovenia (0.6 percent); Lithuania (0.4 percent); Latvia and Cyprus (0.3 percent); Estonia (0.2 percent) and Malta (0.1 percent).

Business Outlook Survey Indicator (Q1) (Canada)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY We saw a huge uplift in this index in last quarter, it move from -68 to almost +3, we hope that the index will recover and CADXXX to move accordingly. The Business Outlook Survey summarizes interviews conducted by the Bank’s regional offices with the senior management of about 100 firms selected in accordance with the composition of the gross domestic product of Canada’s business sector. The balance of opinion can vary between +100 and -100.

April 13

NAB Business Confidence (Australia)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
AUDCAD, AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDNZD, AUDJPY, AUDCHF AUDXXX pairs have chances to be volatile. Look for opportunities. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;

CPI m/m (USD)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY USD pairs are anticipated to be volatile and break structure from the mentioned time or prior. Look for opportunities. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;

GDP 3-Month Avg (FEB) (UK)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPCHF, EURGBP, GBP has slighter chances to be bearish or depending on the outcome of the news it can go either way.` GDP measures the value of goods and services produced in the UK. The reading refers to a three-month growth rate, which is a better indicator of the underlying growth in GDP as the monthly figure is likely to be more volatile. In this sense, the monthly release can be thought of as a monthly update on three months’ worth of data on the economy, rather than a figure representing the economy in just one month. Rolling three-month data is calculated by comparing growth in a three-month period with growth in the previous three-month period, for example growth in March to May compared with the previous December to February.

April 14

Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (APR) (Australia)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
AUDCAD, AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDNZD, AUDJPY, AUDCHF Consume index causes a lot of impact on the economy. Depending on the outcome, prices can go up or down. The Consumer Sentiment Index is based on a survey of over 1,200 Australian households. The Index is an average of five component indexes which reflect consumers' evaluations of their household financial situation over the past year and the coming year, anticipated economic conditions over the coming year and the next five years, and buying conditions for major household items. The index scores above 100 indicate that optimists outweigh pessimists.

Interest Rate Decision (Newzealand)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
All NZDXXX & XXXNZD PAIRS. The forcasted number is the same as the last session's. Better look for opportunities as prices of NZD pairs may get very volatile In New Zealand, interest rates decisions are taken by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The official interest rate is the Official Cash Rate (OCR). The OCR was introduced in March 1999 and is reviewed eight times a year by the Bank. The OCR influences the price of borrowing money in New Zealand and provides the Reserve Bank with a means of influencing the level of economic activity and inflation.

MBA Mortgage Applications (09/APR) (USA)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY USDXXX pairs can go on a bearish trendline or the other way around as there are multiple newses possibly impacting US economy. In the US, the MBA Weekly Mortgage Application Survey is a comprehensive overview of the nationwide mortgage market and covers all types of mortgage originators, including commercial banks, thrift institutions and mortgage banking companies. The entire market is represented by the Market Index which covers all mortgage applications during the week, whether for a purchase or to refinance.

April 16

Core Inflation Rate YoY Final (MAR) (Eur Zone)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF Volatility can be seen with EURXXX pairs. Look for opportunities. There is a high possibility of EURO to remain volatile all day. In Euro Area, the core inflation rate is calculated using the weighted average of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Price (HICP) aggregates, excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco that face volatile price movements.

BoE Cunliffe Speech (UK)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPCHF, EURGBP, Depending on the outcome of the speech GBPXXX pairs might move accordingly. In the United Kingdom, benchmark interest rate is set by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The Bank of England official interest rate is the repo rate. This repo rate applies to open market operations of the Bank of England with a group of counterparties (banks, building societies, securities firms).

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (APR) (US)

Pair Projection What is this news about?
USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF,GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY The Index of Consumer Expectations focuses on three areas: how consumers view prospects for their own financial situation, how they view prospects for the general economy over the near term, and their view of prospects for the economy over the long term. Each monthly survey contains approximately 50 core questions, each of which tracks a different aspect of consumer attitudes and expectations. The samples for the Surveys of Consumers are statistically designed to be representative of all American households, excluding those in Alaska and Hawaii. Each month, a minimum of 500 interviews are conducted by telephone.

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